Over the last year we have published several blog posts examining the 2023 CCA List comparison. As we enter the fourth month of the second year of the 2023 List, we intend to provide an analysis of how the first year compares to that of previous lists, along with what we might expect to see in the coming months.
As shown in the graphs below, there has been a similar increase in the number of registrations in the last few months of the 2023 List as there were in the 2017 List. However, when we compare the proportion of registrations per month in each list, the 2017 List had a much steadier increase, with fluctuations in the last few months of the year. Meanwhile, despite a significant spike last September, the 2023 List has predominantly stayed unchanging. Although, in terms of registrations, the last few months of the 2023 List appear to be following the trend of the first year of the 2017 List more closely.
The increased number of CCA registrations in the last quarter of each list year seems to be directly linked with the increase in customer registrations, which we have seen year-on-year. Most customer registrations are from persons with a legal interest in a property and while the number of customers increases, we can also expect to see an increase in the number of CCA registrations.
When considering registrations by case type, we can see an increase in the proportion of registrations that are challenges over the last few months as the List has become further established. This follows the pattern of the 2017 List and is to be expected as challenges can only be submitted after a check case has been completed. Nevertheless, the proportion of registrations that are challenges is slightly higher at this point in the 2023 List than it was in the 2017 List. This could, however, be a result of the more seamless and therefore swifter start to the 2023 List, which has allowed more check cases to progress to challenge stage.
The increase in registrations over the last few months of the 2023 List has been reflected in alterations, as we can see a further uptick in the proportion of alterations that have occurred, with over 15% of alterations occurring in March alone. For the moment, despite an increase in total RV loss over the last couple of months, the increase has not been in proportion to the increase in number of alterations. As such, there has been a slight decrease in the average RV loss of an alteration. This differs to what we saw in the 2017 List, where the same period resulted in an increase in the average RV loss of an alteration. This may be a result of a decrease in the proportion of alterations that are deletions over the last couple of months as they account for larger RV losses.
Whilst the 2023 List has seen a larger proportion of challenge registrations than at this point in the 2017 List, the proportion of alterations that are challenges in the 2023 List is slightly smaller, with an even greater dissonance in terms of RV loss. A recent Colliers analysis of the latest VOA stats has found that 11.4% of challenges in the 2023 List have been ‘struck out, often on a technicality’, which they have suggested is due to the pressure that the VOA is under ‘to reduce the numbers’. This is demonstrated in the graphs below as the 2023 List has seen substantially more check alterations month-on-month, with the number of challenge alterations in the 2023 List remaining more consistent with that of the 2017 List. Though the last few months have seen the disparity between lists in terms of checks decrease, the disparity between lists in terms of challenges has increased, with the 2023 List having more challenge alterations than the 2017 List.
The average RV loss of checks is significantly greater in the 2023 List, which may be a result of the greater proportion of alterations which are deletions. However as indicated below, the difference in average RV loss between lists has considerably lessened in recent months as the number of deletions has decreased and the number of decreases has stagnated. Nevertheless, the overall average RV loss of checks is twice as great in the 2023 List than the 2017 List, and the overall average RV loss of a challenge is still greater in the 2023 List than the 2017 List.
In terms of the number of alterations by change type for both the 2017 and 2023 lists, there is a similar count of decreases, no change, and reconstitutions each month. Meanwhile, there is a significant difference in the number of increases per month between lists, and a noteworthy difference between lists in the number of deletions each month. In both cases the number of alterations is significantly greater in the 2023 List. Deletions have made up the largest proportion of alterations almost every month in the 2023 List so far. As we have discussed in earlier posts, this appears to be a result of the shift to remote working, which has led to a record-breaking volume of office refurbishment starts.
The discrepancy between lists in terms of number of alterations has been reflected in the RV differences for each change type. There has been a far greater RV loss in terms of deletions for the 2023 List, which we would expect given the substantially greater number of alterations, although this variation has also reduced over the last couple of months.
Over the upcoming months we can expect to see an increase in the number of registrations, and therefore an increase in the number of alterations to the 2023 List. The total RV loss should also increase as the number of alterations increases. As we have already started to see, we expect an increase in the proportion of registrations and alterations that reach challenge and appeal stage as interested persons advance further through the CCA process. If the 2023 List follows the example of the 2017 List, we can also anticipate an increase in the average RV loss of an alteration. Although, if the proportion of alterations that are deletions continues to decrease then we may alternatively see a decrease in average RV loss.